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Zero2Cool  
#1 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 10:34:42 AM(UTC)
On my drive to lunch and taking care of errands today, I heard Bill Michaels say that many fans are essentially demanding the Packers draft Aaron Rodgers successor in this draft. Bill stated that Aaron is under contract four more years and thus the QB and Aaron's contract would expire at the same time. That's not entirely true because if we drafted the QB in 1st round, I believe Packers could use the 5th year option. Besides the point, 2019 is not the time to draft the next QB, unless you really fall in love with a guy.

Assuming this season goes well for Aaron, I wouldn't consider looking for the next QB until 2020 draft at the very earliest with my eyes more set on the 2021 draft.

What do you think? When should the Packers start finding the next Hall of Fame QB?
Pack93z  
#2 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 10:48:02 AM(UTC)
I think when the value arises in terms of squiring talent, you take it. In terms of draft, when a QB prospect is at the top of the draft board, you take it.

Personally, I think unless a Prospect is staring us in the face this year in the draft, you roll with what we have in terms of roster. Or roll the dice late on competition.

In other words, much of that noise is just reaction to this off season "reporting".
KRK  
#3 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 11:08:36 AM(UTC)
Without belaboring my like of Daniel Jones, I would really like to know what the new staff thinks of Kizer. I really liked his pocket presence, unlike Hundley.

The biggest issue seems to me is that he just misses guys, which is a real problem.

I can see the point many posters have made that its too early, but if a Jones or Lock slipped to the second round, I would take them,
wpr  
#4 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 11:23:01 AM(UTC)
Getting a crazy value for a prospect aside- They need to wait. I have said it a number of times the old saying was it takes 3 years to develop a QB. Certainly you can throw a guy out there and the learning curve might be a little shorter but after so many have failed it would be nice to give a guy a full 2 years on the bench before trotting him out there full time.

Aaron's contract is 4 years but who is to say he only plays 4 more years? He might ask for an additional 1 or 2 years. If he is playing at an elite level, he might get them. Don't draft the next franchise qb until 2022.
Pack93z  
#5 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 11:36:54 AM(UTC)
KRK said: Go to Quoted Post

I can see the point many posters have made that its too early, but if a Jones or Lock slipped to the second round, I would take them,


Concur.. When the value dictates it.. you place the pick.

Not some arbitrary notion that there is a time based element to it.

Also, I really like Kizer, accuracy issue might have been a product of timing in the system. I am anxious to see how the QB room adjusts to a new system.
earthquake  
#6 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 4:27:37 PM(UTC)
I think Rodger's contract tells us a number of things.

1. They've got a lot of money devoted to him for the next few years, so a high pick on a QB is unlikely unless they think he's washed up (or they have a player rated real high and he drops). One down/injured year doesn't seem like enough to come to the conclusion that they need to find his replacement immediately.

2. It looks like 2021 is the first year they could reasonably cut Rodgers if his play drops off in a significant way. Post June 1st cut gives them a dead cap number of around 11m, a figure that is pretty easy to absorb for the $80m or so savings over the next 3 years. a 2022 pre June cut accomplishes the same thing. What this means is that realistically, 2021/2022 is the the earliest another QB would be expected to take over. Now, they could trade him too, but if his play drops off it's unlikely another team would take on his contract.

3. He's under contract until 2023, when he'll be 40 years old. Few QBs make it to 40, Brett Favre played until 41, Tom Brady is currently 41. These are the exceptions. That said, if the new coach can put together a decent oline and/or a system that works on quick throws, it wouldn't be a shocker to see him play out his contract, and perhaps put in another year or two. Brady has been sacked about 26/year as a starter, Rodgers 36/year. If those numbers get closer to Brady-esq numbers in the coming years, I could see 40+.

With a target for replacement as early as 2021, taking a QB high this year makes some sense. That would give the new QB 2 years to learn, and 3 years to play out a rookie contract to make sure he's really the guy before giving him a big second contract (close to ideal on both fronts). That said, I would think this is a pessimistic way to look at things, and that in all likelihood any QB taken this year would be a later round developmental QB.

As we get to the 2021 draft, I think if they haven't taken a QB early in 2019/2020, they start looking hard at that option. That said, I could see them forgo taking a QB high until it is very clear that Rodgers is done. I mean let's be real here, when Rodgers is well and truly finished, the Packers will in all likelihood suck, which means high draft picks/good chance of a top end QB for a couple years.
gbguy20  
#7 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 5:17:32 PM(UTC)
2020 absolute earliest. You want to see the guy play a year before paying him the 5th year option. I'd prefer no earlier than 2021. Gives him time to learn and a couple years for us to have a cheap starting QB. However, Rodgers may still have a few years in him once his current deal is done - like Brady. So I say this conversation is jumping the gun.
nerdmann  
#8 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 5:57:51 PM(UTC)
Let's see what we got with Kizer first. Part of that is what kind of a QB guru Le Fleur is. He made RGBIII look good...As a rookie. Made Matt Ryan look good too.

The team may feel it needs some leverage against Aaron, in case Aaron pulls any kind of shit. But it seems like most of Aaron's bullshit is based upon wanting to win.

Bottom line is, this is a short term gambit. They are tooling up for Aaron's last few years, not for the future after that.
Cheesey  
#9 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 7:36:16 PM(UTC)
Not yet.
If Aaron Rodgers stinks it up this year, then next year you pick a QB.
But that’s the earliest.
User is suspended until 11/13/2019 2:16:46 PM(UTC) Smokey  
#10 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 8:10:57 PM(UTC)
With the possible exception of Jones or Lock, I'm not very impressed with this years QB Draft Class. I certainly would not spend a 1st round pick to take one this year. Kizer or a replacement will have to suffice for a few more seasons. If a Jones or Lock are available for the 2nd round pick, picking one of them up for a 3rd string training project could pay off, I would still keep a sharp lookout for a Rodgers replacement by the 2020/21 NFL Drafts.

My ideal QB would be 6'3" to 6'4" tall. Trim build with superior foot speed. A rifle arm and a quick smart mind would be a requirement as well. There is also an intangible that can't found on a statistics sheet, a competitive player that does not know how to quit or football toughness.
buckeyepackfan  
#11 Posted : Tuesday, April 23, 2019 12:48:35 AM(UTC)
Smokey said: Go to Quoted Post
With the possible exception of Jones or Lock, I'm not very impressed with this years QB Draft Class. I certainly would not spend a 1st round pick to take one this year. Kizer or a replacement will have to suffice for a few more seasons. If a Jones or Lock are available for the 2nd round pick, picking one of them up for a 3rd string training project could pay off, I would still keep a sharp lookout for a Rodgers replacement by the 2020/21 NFL Drafts.

My ideal QB would be 6'3" to 6'4" tall. Trim build with superior foot speed. A rifle arm and a quick smart mind would be a requirement as well. There is also an intangible that can't found on a statistics sheet, a competitive player that does not know how to quit or football toughness.



Tim Boyle
Height: 6′ 4″
Weight: 234 lbs
That about right?
Packers are set for the next few years at QB.
Kizer and Boyle just have to keep improving.
Porforis  
#12 Posted : Tuesday, April 23, 2019 7:20:45 AM(UTC)
I don't really pay attention to the drafts or college football so I have no idea what prospects are out there, but I'm not opposed to spending some later round picks this year. But come 2020 or 2021, definitely need to start spending some higher draft picks and I'd be okay with making a big trade for a high first round pick to nab a high end prospect. We're in a unique position where we can have someone sit behind a veteran for a few years without the pressure (barring injury) to come in and immediately perform.
KRK  
#13 Posted : Tuesday, April 23, 2019 4:59:59 PM(UTC)
Hypothetically, one could time the selection perfectly to the draft class, but then, we are drafting for need, which then we make poor choices.

Smokey stated
Quote:
6'3" to 6'4" tall. Trim build with superior foot speed. A rifle arm and a quick smart mind would be a requirement as well. There is also an intangible that can't found on a statistics sheet, a competitive player that does not know how to quit or football toughness
I mostly agree, but
  • I want someone with a high ceiling, physically still maturing who has played well BEFORE being at his physical prime (think Kenny Clark)
  • I want someone at least 6'5" with a high arm release someone who can see and pass from the pocket
  • Someone who has won and or competed well despite his teams shortcomings
  • Someone with brains...ideally the smartest player on offense
  • Someone who can win without using his legs if necessary (think Brady or Luck)

Taking them now allows the staff to fix issues, like the issues which we hoped had been/will be fixed with Kizer.

And by the way, Rodgers did NOT have a rifle arm coming out of college, that was developed.

Accordingly, if Jones or Lock is there in the second round or if I can move down from 12 and pick up addition lower first round picks, I would take one of them.
Zero2Cool  
#14 Posted : Tuesday, April 23, 2019 7:13:31 PM(UTC)
Brett Favre. Aaron Rodgers. 6'2"

Enough said about height.
gbguy20  
#15 Posted : Tuesday, April 23, 2019 7:16:31 PM(UTC)
nope, kevin. 6'3" at minimum. mi-ni-mum.
KRK  
#16 Posted : Tuesday, April 23, 2019 8:10:00 PM(UTC)
Actually, its not enough about height.

12 is a freak. And I bet if you asked him, or Danica, 12 wouldn't mind another inch or two. :-)

Luck and Brady are close to 6'5"

Athletes are getting bigger, esp Olinemen. I want who ever is next to have the best possible chance to see the field and get a clean release.
User is suspended until 11/13/2019 2:16:46 PM(UTC) Smokey  
#17 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2019 4:17:02 AM(UTC)
Size is indeed, IMO, an important factor in evaluating a QB.
Foot speed,yes.
Strong accurate passer,yes
Quick/smart mind,yes.
Good/great college film history,yes

Ryan Fitzpatrick :
Smart (Harvard U.)
Game skills,yes
Can lead a teams offense successfully,yes
A tough "football player", yes.
A franchise GB, no way. However most teams would be happy to hire him as their #2 QB.
Fitzpatrick has proved himself a capable journeyman "backup" QB, but he has always lacked that "it" intangible that can't be found through statistical analysis. Favre had "it", Payton Manning had "it", Brady and Rodgers have "it". "It" is what places them on a higher level above the others. Finding the"it" factor may be the most difficult part of the scouting process.
Zero2Cool  
#18 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2019 4:50:11 AM(UTC)
KRK said: Go to Quoted Post
Actually, its not enough about height.

12 is a freak. And I bet if you asked him, or Danica, 12 wouldn't mind another inch or two. :-)

Luck and Brady are close to 6'5"

Athletes are getting bigger, esp Olinemen. I want who ever is next to have the best possible chance to see the field and get a clean release.


So, 2001 NFL draft you take Sage Rosenfels instead of Drew Brees because Sage meets your close to 6'5" height requirement? Sorry, that's not smart.

You're right, the game is changing and typically speaking, taller guys are less mobile and less fleet of foot. And in the game today, defensive linemen and pass rushers are coming at all sorts of different sizes and speeds. You need a QB who won't get teed off on. So, whether the QB is tallest in his class or not, you want a QB who can think quick and react. Look at Brett Favre later in his career. He wasn't a mobile guy to begin with, but he had incredible POCKET AWARENESS. That's what you want out of your QB more than some arbitrary selected height metric. You want a QB who will inspire and lead your team, who is going to get the other 10 guys on the same page, who is going to be calm under pressure, who is going to forget about that pick he threw but not make the same mistake next time.

There is so much more to being a QB than height. When I hear people talking about height and QB's, I instantly feel they do not grasp what it takes to be a QB because they are focusing on something that is a factor yes but hardly a major one.
KRK  
#19 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2019 6:28:07 AM(UTC)
Z2C said
Quote:
When I hear people talking about height and QB's, I instantly feel they do not grasp what it takes to be a QB because they are focusing on something that is a factor yes but hardly a major one.
Well I guess Luck and Brady will never make it.

I want an athlete who happens to be taller, not a stiff.
Zero2Cool  
#20 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2019 6:30:51 AM(UTC)
KRK said: Go to Quoted Post
Well I guess Luck and Brady will never make it.

I want an athlete who happens to be taller, not a stiff.


Please, read what I said and you'll understand why this remark was off-base.
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