Opening line: Packers -3.5 (52)
FPI projection: Packers (53.2%) by 1
What to watch for: This could be the final matchup between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The Buccaneers and Packers won't play during the 2021 regular season, which means the only way that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will face off next season is in the playoffs. After that, Brady will be 44 and his two-year contract with the Buccaneers will expire. One way or the other, however, the NFL is assured that one of the best quarterbacks in league history will appear in Super Bowl LV.
Why the Buccaneers will win: The Buccaneers had the NFL's top rushing defense during the regular season, holding opponents to 80.6 rushing yards per game. You might not think that stopping the run is the key to beating the Packers, and it won't do it alone. But remember: The Packers beat the Rams on Saturday with 188 rushing yards, their most in a playoff game since Rodgers became their starter. Making the Packers one-dimensional on offense, even if that one dimension is the likely NFL MVP, puts you on the road to pulling off an upset. In the teams' regular-season matchup, won 38-10 by the Buccaneers, Packers tailback Aaron Jones managed just 15 yards on 10 carries.
Why the Packers will win: The Packers have never lost an NFC Championship Game at home since Rodgers became their starter. But they've also never played an NFC Championship Game at home since Rodgers became their starter. They've all been on the road.
But seriously. Is there anyone in the Buccaneers' defensive secondary that you would trust to shut down the Rodgers-Davante Adams connection? The Packers showed Saturday that they'll look elsewhere when Adams is locked in coverage with an elite cornerback such as Jalen Ramsey, but the Buccaneers have no such defender.
X factor: Buccaneers linebacker Devin White. Back from the COVID-19 list, White had one of the biggest plays in Sunday's victory over the Saints. His interception of Saints quarterback Drew Brees set up the Buccaneers for the score that gave them a late, 10-point lead. Be it in pass defense or as a pass-rusher or just as an all-around, sideline-to-sideline defender, White is the kind of player who could upend the Packers' offensive machine. The Buccaneers aren't likely to be able to keep coverage on Adams, but if White can wreak havoc in the pocket, it might not matter.
Stat to know: This matchup will provide the oldest combined starting quarterback age in a conference championship game. The ages of Rodgers and Brady will total 80 years and 227 days.
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