How the changing economics of college football affect the NFL draft
Players considering whether to enter the NFL draft early now have the option to make significant income by remaining in college
April 21, 2025 at 12:36 p.m. EDT22 minutes ago
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By Mark Maske and Nicki Jhabvala
After a redshirt season at Ohio State and three seasons at Texas, quarterback Quinn Ewers opted to leave college football. He entered the NFL draft in January and will find out this week in which city and for which franchise he will launch his multimillion-dollar professional career.

After five years at Georgia, quarterback Carson Beck announced in December that he would enter the draft. But then Beck reversed course in January and decided to remain in college, transferring to Miami to continue his multimillion-dollar quasi-professional career at a new school.

The changing economics of college sports have altered the dynamics of the NFL draft, as prospective early-entry players now have the option of staying in college for lucrative name, image and likeness (NIL) deals and utilizing the transfer portal in what amounts to unfettered annual free agency. In some cases, the college version of pay-for-play could be more appealing.

“It impacts the decision for sure,” veteran NFL agent Blake Baratz said. “Each player’s situation is different. I think what comes into play is what your draft-round potential is, what you can make going back to college, your age, your positional value. … If you’re trying to maximize your dollars over the course of time, it’s a difficult game to play. If you can go to the NFL as a fourth-round pick, now you’re a year in and closer to free agency. You’re younger, and a year — in NFL years — is a lot. So it really depends on the individual situation.”

There was a time when a promising player deciding whether to enter the draft had to weigh his pro prospects and the lure of significant money against the status quo of playing as an unpaid amateur while hoping to improve his game and bolster his future draft status.

How quaint.

“I think it has a big impact,” said Daniel Jeremiah, a former NFL scout and now a draft analyst for the NFL Network. “But I wouldn’t say it’s even specific to quarterback. I think other positions, it’s had a bigger impact. … In years past, the easiest sell for an agent was to a running back, even if he had middling production, which was to say, ‘Hey, you’ve got to start getting paid for these carries you have in your body as soon as possible.’

“So I thought you saw a lot of guys come out when maybe they weren’t quite ready yet. And now those kids are getting paid, either by their school or somebody else. … It’s kept a lot of those kids in school.”

The draft-related decisions made by Beck and Ewers are illustrative.

Beck began last season as a potential contender to be the top selection in this year’s draft. But he threw twice as many interceptions as he’d thrown the previous season. His completion percentage dropped. He finished the season sidelined by an elbow injury that required surgery. His draft prospects plummeted to the point that his initial announcement that he would enter the draft came as a surprise.

His reversal, then, was far from shocking. He will earn an NIL package at Miami estimated to be in the range of at least $3 million to $4 million.

“For him, it made perfect sense,” said Baratz, who is not involved in Beck’s NIL representation. “You have the national spotlight again and you can make $4 million — I don’t know what he’s actually making — and you can play a long time [in the NFL]. He also has the ability. So if he puts it all together, he can go from being the 55th pick to the No. 1 overall pick, theoretically. I don’t see that there’s much downside with him.”

Ewers had a $4 million-plus NIL offer to remain in college and transfer to another school, according to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the confidential nature of the discussions. There was abundant social-media speculation about Ewers’s transfer-portal earnings potential even while he and the Longhorns advanced through the college football playoffs before losing a semifinal game to Ohio State.

“The NCAA system is flawed,” said agent Ron Slavin, who represents Ewers. “They’re having free agency in the middle of bowl season. Coaches are trying to prepare players to win a championship, and there’s rumors on X becoming a distraction.”

But Ewers chose not to become a college-football nomad. He’d made considerable NIL money at Texas and was prepared for the next step. He’ll be part of a quarterback draft class this week that suffers from comparisons to last year’s historic class.

Last spring, six quarterbacks were chosen in the draft’s first 12 picks. This time, Miami quarterback Cam Ward is expected to be the draft’s top overall selection by the Tennessee Titans. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and perhaps Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart could join Ward in being first-round picks. The next group of quarterbacks includes Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Ohio State’s Will Howard, Louisville’s Tyler Shough, Ewers and others. The quarterback activity could be plentiful during Friday’s second and third rounds.

Even so, it’s not a marquee quarterback draft, and the class lost depth and potential when Beck and Penn State’s Drew Allar opted to remain in college.

“The guy that I think people would look at with this example would be Drew Allar,” Jeremiah said. “But I don’t think that was really a financial decision. I think that was just more so him feeling like he wanted to go back to Penn State and see if they could finish off what they got close to last year. I think the quarterback class this year where it’s not as star-studded, it’s just: That’s the roller coaster. We had six last year. Like, there’s no way you keep up that pace.”

The NFL has a rookie-pay system originally established under the 2011 collective bargaining agreement between the league and the NFL Players Association. Drafted rookies sign four-year contracts, while undrafted players get three-year deals. Teams can exercise fifth-year options in the contracts of players selected in the first round. Players are eligible for contract extensions after three seasons.

Caleb Williams, the quarterback chosen first overall last year by the Chicago Bears, signed a four-year contract worth $39.5 million. The deal included a $25.5 million signing bonus and a rookie-year salary of $795,000 for last season. Brock Purdy, the quarterback chosen with the 262nd and final pick in the 2022 draft by the San Francisco 49ers, signed a four-year, $3.7 million contract that included a $77,008 signing bonus. He had a rookie-year salary of $705,000. Last year, he had a salary of $985,000 in his third NFL season.

But getting into the NFL starts the clock ticking toward a potentially more lucrative second contract, with players eligible for unrestricted free agency after four seasons. And NFL players can earn additional income through endorsements and other avenues. In Purdy’s case, he made $857,842 last season through the NFL’s performance-based pay system, a collectively bargained benefit to reward players who, in effect, outperform their salaries. And with Purdy now eligible for a contract extension, the 49ers are negotiating a deal with him that could put him into the upper tier of NFL quarterback pay. The Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott is the league’s highest-paid player with a deal averaging $60 million per season.

“I think where [NIL] really comes into play is when you have really good college players who probably aren’t good NFL players,” Baratz said. “ … If you’re a good college player and you’re a starter, you can make $500,000 or $600,000 or $700,000 or $800,000 or whatever you can make in college. The NFL may look at you as like a priority [undrafted] free agent or seventh-round pick. That’s where it becomes really dicey.”

One of Baratz’s clients, running back DJ Giddens, entered this draft following a redshirt-junior season at Kansas State in which he ran for 1,343 yards.

“He had a really good season,” Baratz said. “He was ready. As a running back, it’s harder to justify going back to school for another year and taking a bunch of hits, risking injury.”

The economics of college sports will continue to evolve, with the pending settlement that would permit schools to directly share revenue with athletes while potentially regulating some NIL income. Whatever happens, the lure of the NFL will remain.

“If it were my son,” Baratz said, “it would be hard for me to tell my son that if you’re going to be a top-90 pick and make $2.5 million next year and start your NFL career and start stacking seasons and becoming a pro — to me, at that point, there’s more downside in going back than upside.”