http://waldo56.wordpress.com/2009/09/03/timeout/ 

An interesting read.

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Nah to interesting if you ask me. I mean about the % part for the 3rd downs and that. Just like he said the defense let 10 points in the 4 quarters meaning the starting defense wasn't on the whole time which he was claiming was about 60% of 3rd downs we're not stopped. So technically this calculation cannot be legit because if the defense gets turnovers on second down your 3rd down calculation won't take effect meaning it would still be at 0% because there has been no 3rd downs. Eventually the defense gets their first and assuming last 3rd down of the game for the pre season and they don't manage to stop the opposing team that would equal 100% of allowing the opposing defense get the 3rd down. Assuming the defense we're on longer / played a whole game stopped more 3rd downs that % would be much different that what his claiming. Anyways I think I lost most of you guys cause I lost myself but I hope some of you at least got the concept of what I was trying to explain lool. I'll just shut up now 🙂.

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We can only go by what we see. How we see our starters do. How our coaches call the game.

A+ all around.

Do the results of the games mean anything? No of course not. Were these practice games? Yeah. But we practiced well, and are probably more ready than 90% of the other teams, and THAT means a whole hell of a lot.

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some good statistics all around.

like i've been saying over and over though. its only preseason. the only things that matters are: confidence heading into the season, emerging healthy, learning as much as possible.

the rest of it is irrelevant

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4 quarters of play is far too early to bust out a statistical analysis. I mean, would you feel comfortable taking Week 1's defensive stats and projecting the quality of 2009 defenses based on that 1 game? Didn't think so. Qualitative assessment is the only tool we have at this point.

What I think he is doing is looking at stats to match up to the qualitative analyses he's already made from simply watching the games. Our defense is not as dominant as they may have appeared at times. Personally, I wasn't expecting dominance, and I'm still not expecting it. What I want is a D better than last year's, a D more aggressive than last year's, a D more confusing and disruptive than last year's, and that I believe we have. Our offense is going to be powerful. Our D is going to improve as the system is implemented (4 quarters of preseason play and we think the 3-4 is established enough to start analyzing the stats?).

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Who's Waldo?

Why because he has a blog is his opinion worth anything more than any poster here?

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That's pretty much what I was talking about in my "Anybody else scared about the defense?" thread. It's still the preseason, but the fact that the only way we can stop offenses is with turnovers is a bit alarming and a cause for concern.

He might even BE a poster here..... :thumbleft:

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Everyone realizes we had difficulties stopping them on 3rd down in the Arizona game. It's one reason I was so happy to see them adjust to press man late in the 2nd quarter and shut them down on O. There were no problems in the other two games. Ok let's break it down.

Vs. Cleveland
Series 1: 66 yards on 11 plays. Missed field goal after penalty. No other penalties on possession. 2 3rd down conversions, against Blackmon (#4/5 CB) and Williams (#3 CB).
Series 2: 3 and out.

Vs. Buffalo
Series 1: 5 plays, ending in an interception. 12 yards gained prior. 1 3rd down conversion, on 3rd and 1 (Lynch ran for 3 yards).
Series 2: Fumble on 4th play, on 3rd and 15. One penalty against O.
Series 3: 7 plays, 13 yards. 1 3rd down conversion. Punt.
Series 4: Fumble on 6th play. 11 yards on 5 plays prior. Fumble on 2nd and 16.
Series 5: 19 yards, 6 plays. Punt. No 3rd down conversions.
Series 6: 24 yards, 6 plays. Punt. no 3rd down conversions.
Series 7: 3 plays, 19 yards. Sack and fumble on 2nd and 2.


Vs. Arizona
Series 1: 4 plays, 22 yards. Drive ended on a fumble. 1 3rd down conversion (3rd and 1), pass complete vs. Al Harris (slant).
Series 2: 10 plays, 59 yards, ending in a field goal. 1 for 2 on 3rd down conversions (3rd and 9, to Fitzgerald vs. Williams).
Series 3: 6 plays, 14 yards, fumble and Defensive TD. No 3rd downs.
Series 4: 8 plays 70 yards. 1 3rd down conversion (3rd and 10, to J. Urban).
Series 5: 3 and out.
Series 6: 2 plays, ending in an INT.


So the worst game our starting D had, they gave up 3 3rd down conversions. Keep in mind, this is without game planning specifically for the offense we were facing (Capers has said as much).

Anyway, I just ran through all 3 games and it turns out our D was 8 for 16 on 3rd downs. 50%. No idea where he got that 68% number.

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My metrics say we kicked the crap out of those three teams.

I don't have the stat.

It is wise to be cautious, but I don't wanna.

:thumbleft: