I've got to agree with Zero on the Finley thing. Until the guy puts a full season in, no way would I make him the best paid TE in the NFL, and probably the highest paid TE ever. There's a lot to be excited about but Finley still has a LOT to prove, in my opinion.
"Greg C." wrote:
Me too.
So far Finley has averaged 27 catches for 350 yards and 2 TDs over his three seasons in the NFL. Nothing at all special about that. His best season was in 2009, with 55 catches for 676 yards and 5 TDs. That's good for 12th in receptions among TEs, 10th in yards, and 12th in TDs. In his BEST season, as a TE that specializes in receiving, and is average at blocking.
Pay that guy the most a TE has ever gotten? With that production?
His lack of production is in large part due to injuries, but you can't just pay him for what you think he would have done while ignoring what he actually HAS done. He needs to do a lot more than that to be worth a huge contract.
"get_louder_at_lambeau" wrote:
Those stat totals are very misleading. Everyone knows that Finley couldn't contribute much as a rookie, because he was young and was still learning the position, and in his second year it took him a little while to get up to full speed. Once he got it rolling in the second half of '09, he was awesome. You've listed his stat totals to try to make him look mediocre, but in the games he played in once he got going, he was one of the best TE's in the league. And in the games he didn't play in, there were other TE's taking his place, so it's not like the position was a total washout. So for Finley to put up those numbers in limited playing time is worth more than another TE putting up the same numbers in 16 games per season.
The bottom line is that NFL contracts are based on the future, not the past, as long as there is enough evidence that a player is capable of living up to the contract. If Finley misses significant time with injuries again this year, it will hurt his value at least a little, but the odds are better that he'll stay healthy and put up big numbers. His two injuries were unrelated and were the result of his leg getting bent wrong, which is unavoidable sometimes. At this point, I chalk it up to bad luck rather than being injury prone.
Remember, when Aaron Rodgers took over the starting QB job, he had been injured two years in a row and a lot of people doubted him because of that. Since then, he's only missed one game.
"doddpower" wrote:
Explain it away as much as you want, but that is his actual production so far, including his best season's totals.
I didn't list them "to try to make him look mediocre". I'm not part of some sneaky anti-Finley conspiracy. I listed them because that's what he has actually done in the NFL so far. It's a reality check, a way of looking at a player without the green and gold glasses on.
I don't think I could name anybody who has been called, by anyone, the best in the NFL at any position having accomplished as little as Finley has so far. His potential is undeniable, but he just hasn't done much yet.
I hope he can put together a great season this year. That would be great. So far, he has not had a great season, or even close to one. Is he capable of one? If he can stay healthy, sure. Shit, I still think Justin Harrell is capable of having a great season if he can stay healthy. I hope both of them do it this year. Will they? We'll see.
You mention his "awesome" half season, which was actually the last 7 games of 2009. His stats from that 7 games averaged 5.4 catches for 59.4 yards and 0.57 TDs per game. A full season of that production would equal 86 catches for 950 yards and 9 TDs. If he was on that fast pace and healthy all season that year, he would have ended up 3rd among TEs in receptions, 6th in yards, and 4th in TDs.
If he would have done that for a full season, then I'd say pay the man. He hasn't done that yet. Even if he had, he wouldn't have been the BEST TE in the NFL in 2009, production-wise. He would have been a top 5 TE, at least counting only receiving, which is Finley's strong suit as a TE.
So, in my opinion, I'd like to see the Packers refrain from paying Finley huge money until he does a little more than he currently has. If he's gonna get paid like he's the best TE in the league, he should at least finish in the top 10 production-wise before that happens. If it doesn't happen again next year, then they have a lot to think about, including the possibility of franchising him, assuming there is still a franchise tag. I just don't want to see the Packers throw $25 million guaranteed at someone with 7 career TDs and a knee injury.