CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 15: Quarterback Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers leads his team in the huddle during the first half against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns defeated the 49ers 19-17. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
By Matt Barrows
Jan 15, 2024
The Green Bay Packers, Jordan Love and maybe a few rain clouds will visit Levi’s Stadium on Saturday when the San Francisco 49ers host their divisional round playoff game at 5:15 p.m. PT.
The 49ers already have been anointed 9.5-point favorites, according to BetMGM, and with a star-filled roster that rivals their early 1990s squads, they might be the favorites as long as they’re in the playoffs.
Are they infallible? Well, no. In examining their four regular-season losses — we’re not counting the meaningless Week 18 game against the Los Angeles Rams — we’ve detected some cracks in their playoff machine.
Granted, you have to squint really hard and tilt your head just so to see them. But they’re worth pointing out now that the postseason finally is getting underway for San Francisco.
1. Special teams
The 49ers ranked No. 2 in total offense, No. 8 in total defense and No. 25 in special teams during the regular season. That’s according to NFL writer Rick Gosselin, who assigns points based on 22 special teams categories and who’s been ranking special teams units for the last 38 years.
The 49ers’ biggest issues have been kick coverage and field goal kicking. They addressed the former by largely sending kicks into the end zone for touchbacks over the last third of the season, and they insist they’re not worried about the latter. After all, Jake Moody made 84 percent of his field goal tries, which is strong for a rookie.
Compared to everyone else, however? Moody’s percentage ranked 20th among kickers who played in at least 12 games this season. And it’s not as if he was put through the wringer. The 49ers were so efficient on offense that Moody attempted only 25 field goals (tied for 27th most in the NFL) and just three that were 50 yards or longer (he was 2 of 3). He had one truly high-pressure kick — at the end of a Week 6 game in Cleveland, which he missed wide right.
Still, Moody was more consistent than the other two rookie kickers in 2023, the New England Patriots’ Chad Ryland (64 percent) and divisional-round counterpart, Anders Carlson of the Packers. Carlson made 81.8 percent of his field-goal tries and missed six extra-point attempts, including one on Sunday. Moody missed just one extra point.
2. No Clelin Ferrell
He might be the easiest starter to overlook because of his modest sack count (3 1/2 in the regular season). But the 49ers love Ferrell’s hustle — “Clelin brought probably the best effort of anybody on the team,” Nick Bosa said last week — and the fact that he’s the only 49ers defensive end who’s been around since the start of the offseason program.
That means he knows the nuances of the defense, especially run defense, as well as anyone. That’s why he started all 17 games this season — he had the trust of teammates and the coaching staff.
While Ferrell recovers from a Week 18 knee injury, the bulk of his run-down snaps will go to Chase Young. Young is the bigger, better athlete of the two and a more effective pass rusher. But Bosa said Young and fellow in-season trade acquisition Randy Gregory still are learning the finer points of the defense that Ferrell has mastered.
“It’s just understanding the aiming points and all the stuff that (defensive line coach) Kris (Kocurek) preaches,” Bosa said. “And it’s tough to come in and get it right, right away. And Randy and Chase are still learning. So they’re gonna have to learn quick, on the run, to be ready to fill those shoes.”
3. Depth at cornerback
The 49ers are confident in their top two cornerbacks. Charvarius Ward made the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career while it’s hard to find a 49er who’s made a bigger improvement over the last year than Deommodore Lenoir.
It’s the No. 3 spot where there are worries. Though Ambry Thomas has made his own strides this season, quarterbacks had a 96.4 passer rating when targeting him in the regular season and he’ll be playing with a cast on his surgically repaired hand. Meanwhile, the team’s had trouble finding a veteran backup this season as they’ve cycled through Anthony Brown and Jason Verrett (shoulder injury) before recently signing Terrance Mitchell, 31, to the practice squad.
Opponents likely will try to put the 49ers in nickel situations the way the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals did in their wins over the 49ers. That will begin with the Packers, who had four wide receivers — Jayden Reed (793), Romeo Doubs (674), Dontayvion Wicks (581) and Christian Watson (422) — reach 400 receiving yards this season.
4. Pass protection
One of the questions this week will be who starts at right guard, Spencer Burford or veteran Jon Feliciano, who’s been dealing with a back injury and who didn’t practice last week.
Feliciano’s been the more efficient of the two in pass protection. He’s surrendered no sacks in his seven starts and committed just two penalties in that span. Burford, meanwhile, has been more inconsistent in his second year in the league, giving up five sacks and committing nine penalties in his 13 starts. No 49ers offensive player committed more penalties and only right tackle Colton McKivitz allowed more sacks — nine in 17 starts.
The Packers, meanwhile, weren’t very good in pass defense during the regular season. But they did record 15 sacks during their current four-game winning streak, including four sacks — and nine quarterback hits — against Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
5. Rain clouds
Brock Purdy’s Kryptonite might be a wet football.
He dealt with some drops during last year’s playoff opener against the Seattle Seahawks. He threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns in that game, but he was more efficient late in the game than he was early on when it was raining and the ball was slick.
Against the Browns this season, he was 12 of 27 on his pass attempts and seemed to struggle during a rainy stretch late in the second quarter. Purdy’s throws wobbled, he missed tight end George Kittle on a deep throw, then lost the ball on a third-down dropback.
The forecast for Saturday is bound to change as the week goes on, but most predictions right now are calling for rain over the weekend.
https://theathletic.com/5202444/2024/01/15/49ers-packers-divisional-round-playoffs-preview