Week Seven Playoff Positions· Page 3

mi_keys
Senior Member

12 years ago

There is a syntactical ambiguity to my statement, which could be interpreted as saying that it was likely that neither Number 1 seed would make it to the Super Bowl. What I meant to say is that there was an 87 percent chance that the Super Bowl would feature either one or no Number 1 seed. In other words, there was only a 13 percent chance that both top seeds would be in the Super Bowl.

It is very common that a Super Bowl features a Number 1 seed. It is quite rare that it features both Number 1 seeds. That pattern held true this year as well.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel

I know what you were saying. I just wanted to point out how likely it has been that one does make it, providing another look at it. The point is if you are not a number one seed, by no means is your season doomed; if you are a number one seed you historically stand a good chance of making it.

Born and bred a cheesehead

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member

12 years ago

#22

If almost 88 percent of Super Bowls have featured a Number 1 seed, can we say that a Number 1 seed has approximately a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs? Or am I missing something?

mi_keys
Senior Member

12 years ago

#23

If almost 88 percent of Super Bowls have featured a Number 1 seed, can we say that a Number 1 seed has approximately a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs? Or am I missing something?

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel

No, that wouldn't take into account the years in which two were featured. 54.5% of number 1 seeds have made the Super Bowl since 1978.

I should make it clear I did my count hastily so I could have miss-coded a team's seed here or there. That said the percentages should be close even if I have made a mistake.

Born and bred a cheesehead

RainX
Member

12 years ago

#24

Looking at our remaining schedule, and even with our defense as playing as mediocre as it has been, 14-2 and getting HFA is definitely doable. I don't think anyone would deny a big reason the Saints won that game two years ago in the NFC Championship against the Vikings was because of that 12th man they had in the Superdome. I'd frankly want no part of them there on the road if we can avoid it. We were able to go into Atlanta last year admittedly and throttle them, but they didn't have the offense to keep up with us like New Orleans does this year. Looking at the better teams in the NFC right now (SF, NO, NYG, & DET), getting them in Lambeau in January would be a big advantage for us. Kind of crazy to think, despite making the playoffs the last two seasons and winning the Super Bowl, the team hasn't played a home playoff game since 2007.

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